The Google race
The reason I strongly believe Google still has the best cards vs Apple & Facebook is the one simple reason: they have Android.
Obviously, there have been some problems to Android in the recent past. One of the most major things was that Google licenced so much phones that it became almost impossible to develop an app that works flawless on the near 300+ devices running Android.
Some other problems were related to Android 2.* which was - to be honest - a bad fake copy of iOS. But, Google strongly turns the tide with the beautiful, fast and awesome ICS which is now on version 4.0.5 on Galaxy Note & Nexus.
The lack of Apple’s innovation on the iOS front could damage the company in the longer haul. I think that iOS now is out-of-date and lacks specific needs the user might has. iOS is one of the major things that hasn’t been part of big changes since the first iPhone came out in 1998. So you can say that the OS is now over 4 years old, but not growing into something.
Pricing is also a thing here. The reason why Apple isn’t too market-dominant is the fact that the iPhones are expensive and Google has a whole line of not-so-expensive phones such as HTC, Samsung and Sony.
Facebook is hot and their mobile app has gotten better and better over the years, but there still working on the framwork which will automatically run native html5 in the canvas from within the FB app. This is something that is on a long term roadmap for Facebook, but not coming closer. Since FB relies on advertising revenue by selling your data to clients (‘if you don’t have to pay for a service, you ARE the product’) this is a bad promise for the next years where Facebook will turn out to be the evil guy by selling your profile to anyone interested in your likes, and other stuff you might wanted to stay more privately. Eventually people will leave Facebook for it. A future IPO will do the rest; there will be more pressure from shareholders in the future to maximise profits over users-rights and stakes, so the user will eventually be the cash-cow.
That being said; I think Apple is nowhere near disctiontion, but I think they clearly need to rethink strategy as they now turn out to be the absolute mainstream. This will cause the core-group of feeling dissatisfied, and creatives getting unsatisfied can bring great damage to Apple. Will this be in short term? No, cause their products right now are just too good and there is no strong competition around the corner. Also, it’s quite difficult to create both the hardware and the software at the same time. Apple does a better job on the hardware, but it needs good & better software to keep up.
Google can stand on a great account of advertising spend (96% of their annual revenue in total) and therefore has the ability to be playing on a lot of boards at the same time. So therefore they are into desktop browsing with Chrome, into mobile stuff with Android and into TV with Youtube and connected services related to it. Google Play will eventually turn out to be a marketplace not only for mobile, but also for content on demand. The day Google buys Nexflix could be a critical step in gaining momentum towards dominance within your household where the big money (also from cable companies) is.
What’s missing? Well, actually: hardware. Google pushes Samsung and other manufacturers to get the best hardware on the line to finally get traction out of the beloved iPad. But this doesn’t seem to be working cause of the competative advantage that Apple has. The new iPad is now the best selling tablet ever, and the Galaxy tab & note are in the shade of this. But, the new iPad isn’t that revolutionary as the iPad 1 or 2 were. This was more of an update of something that already existed, just as the 4S.
Google has the biggest team (32.000 employees) and the best assets to get things big. The reason Plus doesn’t get of so far is the reason Google is not very good at selling their ideas to a crowd. If they manage to create a one-line story about the reason to click on a +1 button anywhere they have a strong asset to enricht search results with social components.